A Renewable Future
How China and Uruguay Set the Example
The world stage is, again, focused on energy and minerals. There are a number of remarkable articles detailing the assault on Venezuela and the threats to Denmark and Greenland. However, the geopolitical turmoil is not the focus of my reflection today. Instead, I want to use this short-form response to discuss something tangentially related to oil grabs from the previous century’s politics: an unstoppable energy transition. In a class focused on sustainable urban design, a student asked me what excited me about the world. The energy transition. The followup concerned what country was leading the way on renewable energy. I answer, “China for growth, Uruguay for totality.” Very few, if any students, would have picked either. China, sure, but Uruguay? Never comes up. But, it’s true. Let’s take a look into why, starting with the energy transition China is making. Then, I will explain the energy transition Uruguay made.
As I tell students, clinging to the energy sources of the past will lead to two problems. First, economic precarity for nations unable or unwilling to transition. Second, what I call a hazards disparity, where some places are “cleaner” than others, gaining benefits in health outcomes and living conditions. Let us begin in the classroom to highlight why the US and other powers are not positioning themselves for success in a world overcoming barriers to a new energy source.
First, some important framing. This is not an essay on human rights, democracy, or centralized systems of governance. This is very much about energy and the choices made by other states seeking energy sovereignty and economic dominance in the 21st century. Ask yourself what these two cases can tell us about the focus on oil and mineral exploitation in the current zeitgeist as you read.
When researchers in this field talk about China, their remarks sound similar to what one colleague often explains in conversations on the topic, “When we talk about getting things done, and quickly, for all the pros and cons that come with that, we look to China.” Replacing thousands of buses in one swoop with electric ones? China.
China has indeed deployed more renewable energy capacity than any other nation in absolute terms. By 2023, China accounted for roughly 50% of global solar panel manufacturing and had installed over 400 GW of solar capacity. The country added more solar capacity in 2023 alone than the United States has installed in its entire history. In sum, that is a massive gain in sustainable energy.
In transportation, Chinese cities lead the electric revolution. The megacity of Shenzhen now utilizes electric buses for its public bus routes. It also asserts its EV weight through its alternative transportation and ride-sharing network, converted to EVs. Need a trip to the hospital? The ambulance is electric too. China is quite good at getting things done. Its centralized campaigns, again, all other things aside, do force change and break through the red tape1. Overcoming inertia is, in my assessment, driven by geopolitical or nationalist ambitions. In short, when Beijing desires change, it changes.
The electrification began in earnest in an effort to impress during the Summer Olympics in 2008:
In the period of Beijing 2008 Olympic Games, 50 high performance lithium power battery electric buses were developed, a large scale and high level demonstration engineering for electric vehicles was carried out…including the formation, promoting, and application system for charging stations, battery rapid automatic replacements, vehicle maintenance, remote security monitoring, and smart scheduling.
Through social and environmental engineering, the central government and city officials cleaned up the notoriously poor air quality. This was a turning point on the world stage and in the energy transition. Here, China started to recognize and, crucially, promote the shift to hybrid and all-electric vehicles. By the Winter Games in 2022, Beijing was truly a leader in sustainable transportation, extending EV and non-petroleum propulsion to subways, buses, personal vehicles, and every other transportation mode imaginable.
China’s Renewable Energy Rollout
But the transportation sector was not alone. The nation’s sustainable energy rollout unfolded in distinct phases. Between 2005 and 2009, the CCP utilized a feed-in-tarrif mechanism. Think of this as policy that offer guaranteed gains for investment in a new technology.2 The policy spurred the construction of early wind farms such as Jiuquan and Gansu, and the first utility‑scale solar parks (e.g., Daqing). By 2010‑2014, China entered a rapid expansion era: wind capacity leapt to roughly 140 GW and solar to 40 GW, supported by massive grid extensions and the emergence of offshore wind pilots in Jiangsu and Fujian. In brief, from 2015 onward, the government paired capacity growth with structural reforms. Thus, they are exceeding other industrialized nations in sustainable energy and EV technology rollout.
China’s sustainable-energy transition illustrates how a nation can utilize legislative power, market mechanisms, and massive infrastructure investment to reshape its power system at unprecedented scale. The early feed-in tariff created the initial momentum; subsequent auction reforms, carbon pricing, and stringent air-quality standards kept the trajectory moving as technology costs fell. While challenges remain (particularly the timely retirement of coal, grid congestion in certain corridors, and ensuring that renewable capacity translates into genuine emissions reductions), the progress achieved by early 2024 signals a decisive shift away from coal toward a cleaner, more resilient energy future. If current policies continue to evolve in line with the “dual carbon” ambition, China is poised to play a pivotal role in achieving global climate goals while simultaneously cementing its leadership in clean-technology manufacturing.
The gains are remarkable, positioning China far ahead of competitors to export their knowledge and expertise around the world. That, in my view, is a huge advantage in a world still trying to cling to a dying resource. Yet China remains the world’s largest coal and CO2 emitter. Thus, I tell students that although China leads in renewable capacity additions, it does not necessarily lead in holistic sustainability. Though, I admit I am apprehensive about efforts to marketize this push and reduce FIT policies.
For holistic sustainability, I instead turn to Uruguay. Uruguay is more interesting for urban design students because it demonstrates what a complete energy transition looks like at the national scale. By 2023, roughly 98% of Uruguay’s electricity came from renewable sources, primarily wind, hydro, and solar (Uruguay Ministry of Energy, 2023). This happened within about 15 years through deliberate policy choices, public-private partnerships, and favorable geography. The lesson for urban designers: Uruguay shows that small to medium-sized systems can achieve near-total decarbonization faster than large ones. Scale matters for transition speed, not just ambition.
So, why and more importantly, how did they get there?
Over the past two decades Uruguay has transformed a power system once dominated by imported oil into one of the world’s most renewable‑heavy grids. The shift was driven by a combination of factors. Economic necessity of course, but also their abundant resources material or otherwise, firm environmental commitments, and decisive policies.
At the beginning of the 2000s, Uruguay’s electricity supply depended almost entirely on oil‑fired plants. This left a country with the economic power of a smaller US state exposed to volatile global oil prices. In that time, oil prices were anything but stables as the Iraq invasion and instability in the MENA region caused challenges around the world. Uruguay, like many other nations, felt the high cost in their households and industry. To summarize, oil prices surging in 2002 and 2003 at a time when the nation was a net importer of oil for everything. Inflation reached, by some estimates, as high as 50%. When you need to reign in costs, you look at what is costing you so much and alternatives. The classic example many point to is the name brand vs. the store brand. I, instead, point to bread.
If you want to save money, bake your own bread. The learning, mess ups, time, etc. are initially costly. But once you get there, you’ll start saving money when you go to the grocery store. There are other gains, as well. Better health outcomes. More refinement to suit your own needs and tastes. Uruguay decided to bake bread. Delicious, renewable, bread.
Uruguay possessed strong geographic advantages: steady coastal winds, decent solar irradiance, and a network of rivers suitable for small‑scale hydroelectric projects. Internationally, Uruguay had already signed the Kyoto Protocol (2002) and later the Paris Agreement, pledging to curb greenhouse‑gas emissions. Together, these factors created a clear incentive to pursue a low‑cost, low‑carbon energy strategy that would safeguard the nation’s economy and meet its climate obligations.
Legislative Foundations
The cornerstone of Uruguay’s transition is a law that, similar to China, instituted a feed‑in‑tariff (FIT) system guaranteeing long‑term purchase contracts for wind, solar, biomass, and small hydro. By providing price certainty, the FIT attracted private investment and sparked the first wave of large wind farms. Building on that momentum, the National Energy Plan (2007) set explicit targets and outlined incentives, grid‑integration measures, and financing mechanisms. Though they could not move at the speed of China, streamlining project approval was a policy focus. Achieved through a number of refinements and a new bureaucratic apparatus to centralize permitting, policy became power:
2005‑2009 – Early wind projects such as Cerro del Tigre (100 MW) and upgrades to small hydro plants marked the first tangible results of the FIT scheme, lifting the renewable share to roughly 30 % of total generation.
2010‑2013 – A wind‑farm boom added more than 1 GW of capacity (e.g., Punta del Tigre, San Gabriel, Maldonado). Solar pilots began to appear, and the renewable share surged to about 55 %.
2014‑2016 – Grid modernization, including smart‑grid pilots in Montevideo, and the launch of the 30 MW Punta del Este solar park further lowered electricity prices, making them among the cheapest in the region.
2017‑2020 – The Montevideo rooftop solar program and continued utility‑scale solar installations pushed renewable generation to approximately 95 % of total electricity by 2020, with wind supplying the bulk, hydro providing base-load, and solar filling daytime peaks.
2021‑present – Expansion continues with larger solar farms, battery‑storage pilots, and integration of electric‑vehicle charging infrastructure. Surplus renewable power is now exported to Brazil and Argentina during windy periods, turning Uruguay into a net exporter of clean electricity.
Conclusion: The New Sovereignty
Ultimately, the paths taken by China and Uruguay reveal a shared realization: the transition to renewable energy is not merely an environmental mandate, but a strategic imperative for national survival. By decoupling their economies from the volatility of global oil markets, these nations are securing a form of independence that fossil fuels can no longer provide. Uruguay sought to end its vulnerability to external price shocks, while China sought to lead the next global industrial era. Both recognized that in the 21st century, sovereignty is measured by energy autonomy. These countries are not just participating in a trend. Instead, they are aggressively claiming the future, ensuring that while others remain tethered to the diminishing returns of the past, they possess the health, economic stability, and political leverage of a self-sustaining power.
An oft touted problem, in the US at least, is the Environmentalist vs. Conservationist issue. Where environmental laws, such as species protection, are deployed to stop sustainable energy projects.
You can read more about FITs over at Investopedia
I would not have guessed Uruguay. Great article